Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Times and Grades for NYCM

Alright folks, admit it. You’ve been waiting a long time for this. Why else would you be lurking here stalking my every step, my every sentiment, my every word? I seriously doubt my frivolous thoughts and childlike whines about a certain Sunday race are what’s keeping all of you entertained. But although I know exactly what you’re all about, I’m going to give in and talk about it anyways because I haven’t stopped thinking about it today and I need to jot it down somewhere before I forget.

So here they are…the moment of truth…ladies and gentleman, my time goals for the 2008 New York City Marathon (yes, I picked 5 instead of 3 because NYC has 5 boroughs, not 3…)

Goal 1: Anything less than 3:00
Average Pace: Faster than 6:52
Expectation: Totally stupendous but probably ridiculous
Probability of Success: 10%
Grade: A+++

Goal 2:
3:00:00 – 3:02:59
Average Pace: 6:52 – 6:59 min/mi
Expectation: A bit of a reach
Probability of Success: 35%
Grade: A+

Goal 3:
3:03:00 – 3:04:59
Average Pace: 6:59 – 7:03 min/mi
Expectation: More realistic
Probability of Success: 50%
Grade: A

Goal 4:
3:05:00 – 3:08:16
Average Pace: 7:03 - 7:11 min/mi
Expectation: Will be satisfied with PR
Probability of Success: 70%
Grade: A-

Goal 5:
3:08:16 – 3:10:59
Average Pace: 7:11 – 7:15 min/mi
Expectation: Settling for the BQ
Probability of Success: 85%
Grade: B+

Scenario 6:
Average Pace: Slower than 7:15 min/mi
Expectation: What expectation…this would be a disaster
Grade: B…but seriously this is an F for me

What do you all think? What grade will I achieve on Sunday? Let me hear your projections in the comments. (And please be realistic; don’t cast your ballot for sub-3’s unless you expect me to start out pacing that way!)


Julianne said...

Veeeery colorful post there today! I love how you have 5 goals, with grades. LOL. You make "settling for BQ" sound like it's a bad thing! Gosh, don't put so much pressure on yourself! I hope you get within goal 1 to 5 (smaller #s are better, of course) for your sake but really, just go out there and have fun! OK????

Andrew is getting fit said...

Heh...I wish I could attain your F!

I'm looking forward to seeing how you go. ;)

M*J*C said...

I am completely impressed with all of your options! I can't even comprehend those numbers...but since I like to play I'm going with the A+++ or the A+. I think that once you get out there you are totally going to get in your groove and rock it out!!!!!

J said...

I think you can obtain goal 3 and depending on how you are feeling possibly goal 2. I would say aim for a PR, you've trained for it and I know you can accomplish that!

nwgdc said...

I agree, colorful post!

However, I must say, a sub-3 marathon deserves to represented with something better than LAVENDER.

I think you've got it in you. Bib number? Can we track you?

The Happy Runner said...

"Settling for BQ" -- pah!

I really hope you make goal 1! With a 35% probability of success, I'd say you'll reach goal 2 for sure!

I'm rooting for you to reach that goal AND enjoy the race!

The Laminator said...

Thanks all for your encouragement.

Not sure why I went with the colors today, but there it is. And yes, Nic, I'll be providing a link in the next couple of days how you can, i mean track, the Laminator as he runs this race =)

joyRuN said...

Lam - given that this is YOUR hood, my hope for you is that you ENJOY YOURSELF!!!

*aron* said...

ohhhh i cant wait to see how it goes!! i definitely think a PR or better :) you have trained HARD and definitely deserve over an A.

Robert Reese said...

Great way to split up the goals. And, kudos for making them public. I'm always afraid of sharing my super-goals. Then again, it's all relative -- my super-goal for the marathon is your Goal #5. Oh, look at that, just made it public. :-)

Lacey Nicole said...

WOW! Good luck on Sunday! My boyfriend's mom is running it and she believes it's going to be her last marathon... can you believe that? (she's 60 and has been having some trouble with injuries). i'm so sad for her but so pumped for her to run it (she grew up in NYC, it's her fave marathon).

will you run Boston this year if/when you qualify?????!!!!! STUPENDOUS!!! GO GET 'EM! :) i love your breakdown of goals+grades+comments. give it what you got and here's pulling for the PR and BQ! :)

Jamie said...

Settling for a BQ???? I wish! Don't be so hard on yourself man :) You've had some amazing races these past few months I am going for an A+ result come Sunday. But remember have fun and run your race on how you're feeling that day. Good luck!

M*J*C said...

Can't wait for the "stalking" details!!!!

Brooke said...

Hmmmm....I'm going to have to say 1 or 2. If all other conditions are ideal...but then there are so many variables, huh? Best of luck, and enjoy yourself regardless!

Xenia said...

My brain collapsed when I read 'settling for a BQ'.

Whatever time you come in at, it'll be an A+++++ in my book. Because I'm (almost) the prof and I say so, damn it! :)

Good luck, Lam!

audgepodge said...

I am rooting for an A+! Have fun! Say hi to Ryan Reynolds for me :)

Run For Life said...

I agree with Xenia, lol. Have fun, race smart, and please don't forget about the time change!

nyflygirl said...

A all the way :)

Great seeing you at the pasta party last nite...the excitement is mounting!!

Alan said...

35% chance of success my BUTT!

way to kick as- no wait... let me rephrase that...

way to not only kick the ass of the marathon, but to leave a footprint of your particular running shoe on its backside. nice work bro

MissAllycat said...

Just stalked your time online...Congrats on the A+! ;)

Meg said...

I'm trying to catch up on blogs and not sneak a peak to the end to see how it turned out!

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